The UK has just a 1% chance of winning the Eurovision Song Contest this weekend, Bing has predicted.
Microsoft’s search engine has crunched the numbers on all 26 competitors and belives Lucie Jones is 12th in the list of performers who are most likely to take top spot in the annual singing competition on Saturday night.
The Cardiff-born singer, who appeared on The X Factor in 2009 and has since appeared in musicals in the West End, will be performing Never Give Up On You in Kiev, Ukraine. It was written by Emmelie de Forest, who won Eurovision in 2013 while representing Denmark, and songwriter Lawrie Martin.
Jones, 25, is hoping to become the sixth UK winner of the Eurovision Song Contest, which would end a 20-year gap since our last victory – Katrina and the Waves took the title in 1997 with Love, Shine a Light.
Bing believes Italy is most likely to win the competition; Francesco Gabbani, singing Occidentali’s Karma, has a 20.1% of victory. Sweden’s Robin Bengtsson follows with a 14% chance of winning, while Kristian Kostov of Bulgaria follows in third place, with 10.1%.
Bing does not expect good news for Spain and Norway, who both have just a 0.2% chance of taking the Eurovision crown.
Bing has drawn up its real-time predictions based on web, social media and search traffic data. Content is ordered, for example, depending on whether it’s been posted by an influencer with a significant following, if it’s an original post or a retweet, or if it’s positive or negative. Real-time search traffic is then used to understand how interest is waxing or waning. Finally, the model considers where the traffic is coming from. Information is weighted in favour of real-time data such as live social media conversations and incoming search traffic, meaning the closer we get to an event, the more accurate the predictions.
All data included in the analytic models are anonymous and it is impossible to attribute any indicators to an individual user.
Bing has a track record of accurately predicting the outcome of events; in 2015, it correctly predicted Sweden as the winner of Eurovision, accurately announced all top five finishers in the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix in 2016, and revealed the 2017 Oscar winners with 71% accuracy.
Lyrics to Never Give Up On You (in case you want to sing along)
Tell me your secrets, I’ll keep them safe / No sign of weakness, it’s a sign of faith / We’ll stand tall so you don’t fall
You’re not defeated, you’re in repair / Don’t have to call me, I’ll always be there / We’ll stand tall, so you don’t fall
If you could see how far you’ve walked / You would see that’s all not lost
I will never give up on you / I don’t care what I’ve got to lose / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through this storm / I will never give up on you / You’re the one that I’m running to / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through this storm
Under the surface, I see you glow / I’m right beside you, you’re never alone / Don’t let go, when you’re so close
If you could see how far you’ve walked / You would see that all’s not lost
I will never give up on you / I don’t care what I’ve got to lose / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through this storm / I will never give up on you / You’re the one that I’m running to / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through
This madness we’re running through / This magic, it’s inside of you / It’s madness, it’s madness
Now you can see how far you’ve walked / The mountains climbed, the oceans crossed
I don’t care what I’ve got to lose / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through this storm / I will never give up on you / You’re the one that I’m running to / Just give me your hand and hold on / Together we’ll dance through this storm
